The following is a fact-check from the May 30, 2010 episode of Meet the Press:

ROBERT DUDLEY (BP) | Original oil flow estimates were 5,000 barrels a day and were based on satellite pictures – HALF TRUE

MR. DUDLEY:  The original estimates, which were government and BP estimates together, primarily unified estimates of 5,000 barrels a day, were based on satellite pictures.

According to ABC news, the coast guard and BP originally estimated that only a 1000 barrels of oil a day were spilling into the gulf. Then, according to the New York Times, the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, through aerial observations, made the estimate of 5,000 barrels a day. After the new estimate by the NOAA, Admiral Landry, of the Coast Guard, conducted a press conference emphasizing that the leak was 5,000 barrels a day, not a 1,000 barrels that had been previously reported. However, Doug Suttle, chief operating officer for BP, still claimed that the original estimate of a 1,000 barrels was accurate.

The NOAA estimate of 5000 barrels were based on aerial observations, but that estimate was not the original, it was the second. The first estimate was only a 1,000 barrels of oil spilling a day. Therefore, we will rate Mr. Dudley’s misleading statement HALF TRUE.

This fact check took 1.5 hours.

Here are the fact-checkable statements from the May 30, 2010 episode of Meet the Press.
Transcript | Video

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ROBERT DUDLEY (BP) | Original oil flow estimates were 5,000 barrels a day, (CHECKED – HALF TRUE) now it is 12-19,000

MR. DUDLEY:  The original estimates, which were government and BP estimates together, primarily unified estimates of 5,000 barrels a day, were based on satellite pictures.  We’ve always found this a difficult oil to measure because of the, the huge amounts of gas in the oil. The, the new estimate range of I think it’s 12,000 to 19,000 barrels has been issued without an actual flow measurement.  The one thing about this method that we’re about to go into, it will and should measure the majority of the flow.

ROBERT DUDLEY (BP)

1)The Deepwater Horizon accident was unprecedented.
2) The blowout preventers on the more than 5,000 deepwater wells have not failed before

MR. DUDLEY:  This is an unprecedented accident.  These, these blowout preventers which are used on oil and gas wells all around the world and have been used on more than 5,000 deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico have not failed before.

ROBERT DUDLEY (BP) | Industry standards include checking blowout preventers every 14 days.

MR. DUDLEY:  I don’t think so.  The industry has–all around the world these pieces of equipment are inspected regularly, and in the U.S. they’re inspected every 14 days.  This is a very unusual failure.  We need to find out why.  We need to learn from it and, and change the industry for good.|

CAROL BROWNER | Measures to handle oil spill have included: more than 80 burns which are highly successful, 1,400 vessels skimming more than 11 billion gallons of water/oil.

MS. BROWNER:  Well, the good news is, if there’s any good news here, is that we have a lot of systems in place to manage and decrease the amount of oil that comes onshore.  So, for example, more than 80 burns have been conducted. These burns are highly successful, they corral the oil, they burn it.  Now, we can’t do it all the time; weather conditions don’t always allow for it. Secondly, there is booming that is in place.  You–the president visited some of that booming.  They’re able to capture the, the little pellets, the, the little slicks of oil that come onshore.  And then finally there is the skimming.  There are over 1,400 vessels in this part of the Gulf of Mexico. We are using skimmers that skim up the oil sheen.  They bring up water, too. I think it’s over 11 billion barrels of oil and water that have now been skimmed up.  All of that is going to continue.

CAROL BROWNER | Govt. has been in control of the oil spill response since the beginning.

MS. BROWNER:  Well, the government’s been in control from the beginning.

CAROL BROWNER | There have not been similar accidents with underwater wells. (this is roughly the same check as the Dudley check above)

MS. BROWNER:  David, I, I, I think that we have to understand all of these things going forward.  But I do think it’s important to understand that these wells have been drilled for several decades now.  There have not been these kinds of accidents.

CAROL BROWNER | All deepwater rigs in the US have been shut down.

MS. BROWNER:  That is why all of those operations have been shut down. In the Arctic, they’ve been shut down; in the Gulf of Mexico, they’ve been shut down, including 33 rigs that were out there drilling right now, which, you know, we understand it’s going to be hard on those people.

REP. J.D. HAYWORTH (R-AZ)

1) The President of Mexico instructed the US State Dept. to have the personnel sent to the southwest not enforce immigration laws.
2) The troops that were sent are “essentially” only working to maintain vehicles or work in offices.

REP. HAYWORTH: When you go back and check the press accounts, we hear that actually the president of Mexico and the government of Mexico, not content on lecturing the state of Arizona and the majority of American citizens from a joint session of Congress, now instructed the State Department, “Hey, if you’re sending people there, don’t have them enforce immigration laws.” So what we are seeing right now is a situation where you will have troops essentially working to maintain border patrol vehicles, change oil, change tires, or work in the office dealing with computers.

REP. J.D. HAYWORTH (R-AZ) | NYC adopted a “broken windows” police policy that means minor infractions are enforced, and as a result overall crime has dropped in NYC.

REP. HAYWORTH:  For example, in New York City, a policy was adopted called the “broken windows” theory of policing, where you enforce the law for infractions no matter how seemingly minor and, as a result, overall crime drops.

DAVID GREGORY (NBC) | The 12 million unauthorized immigrants in the US are all Mexican. (just pointing out a mistake here)

MR. GREGORY:  …reflecting the fact that you can’t just deport 12 million people back to Mexico.

REP. J.D. HAYWORTH (R-AZ) | Representatives Hayworth and Gutierrez both have remarkably clean driving records (this one is just for fun, if somebody knows how to check it, on the off chance they have speeding tickets or something)

REP. HAYWORTH:  Now, David, you set up a situation.  Let’s talk about the commonality of the experience.  First of all, Luis and I are remarkably safe drivers.

REP. J.D. HAYWORTH (R-AZ)

1) In 2007 the Heritage Foundation reported that unauthorized immigrants would cost 2.6 billion in retirement benefits if made citizens
2) Let’s fact check the Heritage Foundation report, since it is a partisan organization.

REP. HAYWORTH:  And would remind the viewers that in the 2007 bill with the late Senator Kennedy, the Heritage Foundation estimated that long-term retirement benefits alone for illegals granted citizenship would be $2.6 trillion.  So much for fiscal responsibility from my opponent.

DAVID GREGORY (NBC) | Economy is on track to create 1.7 million jobs this year

MR. GREGORY:  The, the economy now is growing.  It’s on track to create on the order of 1.7 million jobs this year.  If that happens, does the Obama administration deserve credit for a turnaround?

EJ DIONNE | The majority of jobs created by the stimulus package are/were in the private sector

MR. DIONNE:  The jobs created from the stimulus are largely in the private sector.  It’s rule number one of the–of economics that when the government pushes out this money it has an effect across the economy.

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Still trying to get a few more fact-checks done for the week, so we’ll have the time spent tally done a little later. Regardless, there were a couple checks we’re really proud of this past series, including one which is probably the most clearly FALSE statement we have yet seen. Find them all here.

Hope everyone is having a wonderful holiday weekend, don’t forget that Monday is about more than BBQs and furniture sales.

Meet the Press: May 30, 2010

Interview:

Carol Browner
White House Energy Adviser

The massive oil spill in the Gulf: It is now being called the worst leak in U.S. history, surpassing the Exxon Valdez disaster, and forcing the resignation of the head of the agency that oversees offshore drilling. When will workers finally get the spill under control? And what is the plan to clean up the affected areas and help the Gulf residents impacted by the leak? We’ll ask the point person for President Obama on energy and environmental policy: Carol Browner.

Debate:

Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL)

Fmr. Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ)

The fight for immigration reform: As the Justice Department decides whether or not to challenge Arizona’s restrictive new law, the debate continues both inside and outside the beltway over what needs to be done in order to ensure comprehensive — and fair — immigration reform. Does the law in Arizona violate civil rights? What needs to be done in order to ensure safe, legal and effective immigration reform for the entire country? And will the president’s decision to send 1,200 National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border have any impact? We’ll have a debate between two of the most vocal leaders on this issue: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) vs. former Congressman, currently running for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate from Arizona, J.D. Hayworth.

Roundtable:

David Brooks
Columnist, New York Times

E.J. Dionne
Columnist, Washington Post

Another packed agenda for the Obama administration: As a chorus of critics begins to speak out against the president’s handling of the BP oil spill, what needs to be done now in order to restore confidence in the government’s handling of that spreading disaster? What action should now be taken and what should have been done from the start? Plus, will President Obama be able to gather enough bipartisan support to resolve the immigration debate? And how will this immigration fight impact the 2010 midterm elections? Our roundtable weighs in: The Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne & The New York Time’s David Brooks.

The following is a fact-check from the 5/23 episode of Meet the Press.

REP. JOE SESTAK (D-PA) | Oil companies are currently having record profits. – HALF TRUE

MR. GREGORY:  …which is what specific, painful choice would you advocate as United States senator to deal with the debt?

REP. SESTAK:  Close those tax loopholes.  All right?  Carried interest for Wall Street upwards of $80 billion to $100 billion a year, they get taxed at 15 percent.  Eighty billion dollars for tax loopholes for oil companies that literally have record profits, $352 billion a year that’s not collected in taxes from small businesses and individuals…(unintelligible)…corporations.

So thanks to FactCheck.org for looking into this one:

It’s true that ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, ConocoPhillips and Shell all saw big jumps in net income in 2010 compared with 2009 – but they’re still not earning what they did back in 2008. And for nearly all of those companies, 2007 first quarter earnings were higher than the most recent profits posted as well. Here’s our chart on oil companies’ profits, drawn from their filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and company reports:

The chart FactCheck.org created:

We agree with their analysis and rate Rep. Sestak’s misleading statement as HALF TRUE. Yes the oil companies are going through a several year period during which they have had record profits, but not specifically last or this year.

This fact-check took a combined 15 minutes.

The following is a fact-check from the 5/23 episode of Meet the Press.

RAND PAUL

1) The US has an annual deficit of $2 trillion – HALF TRUE

2) The interest to that debt is $383 billion – TRUE

DR. PAUL: We have an annual deficit of nearly $2 trillion. Interest alone on the debt is $383 billion.

1) According to the Treasury Department, the national debt for fiscal year 2009 was $1.786 trillion. Mr. Paul said that it was “nearly $2 trillion.” Our conclusion hinges on our understanding of “nearly.” It would be reasonable to assume that if you spent $1.78 on something, you could probably refer to the amount spent as “nearly $2.00” When the difference is 22 cents, that does not seem like a big deal, but when the difference is hundreds of billions of dollars, we believe it is misleading to classify $1.786 trillion as nearly $2 trillion. Because of this, we rate the first part of Mr. Paul’s statement HALF TRUE.

Incidentally, if you wanted to look at the total deficit for the length of one year specifically prior to May 22, 2010 when Mr. Paul made this statement, the national debt was $1.686 trillion. (5/21/09-5/22/10)

2) Also according to the Treasury Department, the net interest on the outstanding debt of fiscal year 2009 was indeed $383 billion. Because of this, we rate the second part of Mr. Paul’s statement TRUE.

Continue reading…

The following is a fact-check of the May 23, 2010 episode of Meet the Press:

SEN. JOHN CORNYN (R-TX) | A recent NY Times poll said that 57% of independents sympathize with the tea party movement. – FALSE

SEN. CORNYN:  The fact is, as a New York Times poll said recently, that 57 percent of independents, the people who actually win elections, or, or tip the balance of elections, sympathize with the tea party movement.

Looking at every recent poll posted on the New York Times website, including the poll they conducted in April specifically regarding the tea party movement, there is absolutely no data that even comes close to backing up or even properly relating to Sen. Cornyn’s statement.

In the April poll by NYT/CBS which specifically looked at the tea party, the respondents consisted of 31% Democrats, 28% Republicans, 33% independents, and 7% don’t know/no answer. Of the overall respondents, 21% had a favorable view of the tea party and 25% thought its supporters views reflected those of most Americans. There were no breakdowns made available of those two responses based on party affiliation. Only 18% of the overall respondents identified themselves as tea party supporters, and of that 18%, only 40% identified themselves as independents.

In a February poll by NYT/CBS which consisted of  30% Democrats, 28% Republicans, and 42% independents, only 26% said they had a favorable view of the tea party.

Neither poll ever used the term “sympathy” or “sympathize” regarding questions on the subject of tea party support or favorability.

Unless there is some “recent” poll by the New York Times not listed on the New York Times website or on Pollster.com, then “the fact is” Sen. Cornyn’s statement is as FALSE as any statement could possibly be.

This fact check took a combined 2 hours, 10 minutes.

The following is a fact-check from the 5/23 episode of Meet the Press.

SEN. JOHN CORNYN (R-TX)

1) Since President Obama was sworn into office the national debt has increased 23% – MOSTLY TRUE

2.) President Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress are “responsible” for that 23% increase in the national debt – HALF TRUE (Highly Misleading)

3) Under Obama’s budget the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase to 90% by 2020 – TRUE

4) Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 115% – MOSTLY TRUE

SEN. CORNYN: There they go again blaming it on George Bush. I don’t know when this administration, when the Democratic leadership that got the majority in November 2008 are going to take responsibility for the 23 percent increase in the national debt since President Obama was sworn into office. Under the president’s own budget, our debt-to-GDP ratio will be up to 90 percent by 2020, 90 percent, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Greece is at a 115 percent.

1) According to the Treasury Department, the current holding of debt on the day President Obama was sworn in, January 20, 2009, was $10.618 trillion and on May 21, 2010, the debt was at $12.978 trillion. This means that in that time the debt has increased by 22.31%. So Sen. Cornyn was off by .69%. Therefore stating that the debt has gone up by 23% since Obama was sworn in is MOSTLY TRUE.

2) However, it is also worth examining how Sen. Cornyn attaches that number to a statement or assertion that seems to indicate that Pres. Obama and the Democratic leadership are “responsible” for this total increase. To suggest that is highly misleading. Pres. Obama’s first budget did not take effect the day he was sworn in. If looking at the debt that Pres. Obama and the Democratic majority are “responsible” for as Sen. Cornyn suggests, then Oct 1, 2009 is the reasonable start date, when fiscal year 2010 and Pres. Obama’s first budget took effect. The debt at that point was $11.920 trillion, meaning the increase from then to May 21 was 8.95%. We agree with this analysis from crowd-checker kcars1:

The line for how much debt/spending a president is responsible is a difficult line to draw, particularly in this case because there has been so much extra-budgetary, emergency activity. The president enters office operating on the previous president’s budget for 9 months. In addition, there is greater than 50% of the budget that is already committed and which takes years to alter (Social Security, Medicare, and Net Interest). Adding to all of that, no one does zero-based budgeting, so programs already in place are likely to suck up a few dollars — at the very least in the process of being wound down.

So while Sen. Cornyn’s statement regarding the specific percentage increase and timeline is factual, the larger assertion he seems to be making is half true at best. Obviously Pres. Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress are responsible for some of the increase, indeed probably a majority of it, but if Sen. Cornyn means to imply they are totally or solely responsible for the 23% increase, that is false. If he meant some responsibility, then the statement would of course be true. Since we cannot know for sure which he meant, we deem it misleading and HALF TRUE.

3) Under Obama’s budget the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase to 90% by 2020- According to the Congressional Budget Office’s projection, if the current economic conditions and tax rates stay the same, the debt-to-GDP ratio will be 90% in 2020. Therefore, we rate this statement as TRUE.

4) Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 115%- According to CIA-The World Factbook, the debt-to-GDP ratio was 113.4% in 2009. Because of the 1.6% discrepancy, we’ll rate this statement MOSTLY TRUE.

Special thanks to crowd-checker kcar1 for assisting with this fact-check.

This fact-check took a combined 2 hours.

The following is a fact-check of the May 23, 2010 episode of Meet the Press:

SEN. JOHN CORNYN (R-TX) | 56% of Americans want to repeal the healthcare bill. – LIKELY FALSE

SEN. CORNYN:  Sixty percent of the people–I think it’s 56 percent nationwide–believe the healthcare bill that my friend Mr. Menendez and my friend Mr. Sestak support, they want to repeal it because they realize we can’t afford because it raises premiums, raises taxes, and cuts Medicare in order to create a new entitlement program.

OK looking at Cornyn’s statement alone, it is constructed to be LIKELY FALSE. He does not say “a recent poll said” or any other qualifier of the number, just “56 percent nationwide.” Of course it’s virtually impossible that a statement like that, as an absolute, could be true. Putting that aside for a moment what Sen. Cornyn is referring to is a Rasmussen poll which came out last week indicating that 56% of the likely voters they surveyed favored repealing the recent health care bill. In fact another Rasmussen poll out this week puts that number at 63%. In addition, perhaps a minor point, but Rasmussen polled “likely voters” in these surveys, and again Sen. Cornyn did not say “likely voters” he said “Americans.”

Regardless, determining just how many Americans support repealing the health care bill is not as simple as looking at one poll or polls from one firm.  For instance, the national average of polls done by Pollster.com for the last two months indicate that opposition to health care reform is trending down, with 45.6% of the population opposing health care reform while 41% approve, and of the polls that track it, an average of 17.2% either don’t know or have no opinion. In addition a May 6-10 poll by NBC/WSJ indicated that of a surveyed group in which 38% thought the health care bill was a good idea and 44% thought it was a bad idea, only 42% said they would more likely to vote for a candidate who wanted to repeal the bill. (55% said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who wanted to change the bill) An earlier Indiana University poll in mid-April found that 51% supported repealing the bill. And a May poll by (conservative polling firm) Resurgent Republic found that only 35% of respondents agreed with GOP efforts to “repeal and replace” the health care bill.

Now there is not a lot of polling regarding the specific question of favoring repeal of the health care bill, and Rasmussen has looked at it on a weekly basis, but that does not in any way mean that Rasmussen’s results can be taken alone to be an accurate representation of what the overall American population thinks. So not only is Sen. Cornyn’s statement LIKELY FALSE because of its wording, the statistic itself is LIKELY FALSE as well. Polls undoubtedly indicate that the health care bill is still opposed by plurality of Americans, but a statement of fact cannot be made that 56% favor repealing it.

Special thanks to crowd-checker Andrew Tyndall for assisting with this fact-check.

This fact-check to a combined 2 hours.

ED NOTE: This post was corrected: the word “plurality” was inserted for “majority” in the final paragraph.

SEN. ROBERT MENENDEZ (D-NJ) | There are 12 million unauthorized immigrants in America. – TRUE

SEN. MENENDEZ:  And I’ve said to–you know, I’ve mentioned various times that the governor of Arizona should speak to her two U.S. senators and to her Republican colleagues in the Senate to make sure that they join us in an effort to make sure we control the borders and, at the same, time deal with the 12 million people in this country.

We fact-checked a similar statement from Senator Shelby on the 4/25/2010 Meet the Press. According to a Department of Homeland Security report released in February, as of 2009 the population of unauthorized immigrants in the United States was 10.8 million, while an April 2009 Pew Hispanic Center report indicated the number was then 11.9 million. Though his number may be a little bit high, we rate Sen. Menendez’s statement TRUE.

This fact-check took 10 minutes.

The following is a fact-check of the May 23, 2010 episode of Meet the Press:

SEN. JOHN CORNYN (R-TX) | Rand Paul is leading Jack Conway by 25 points in the KY Senate race – TRUE

SEN. CORNYN: But the fact of the matter is Rand Paul’s leading his opponent in the, in the general election by 25 points.

Sen. John Cornyn got his number from a poll by Rasmussen Reports conducted on May 20, 2010. The Rasmussen poll predicted that Rand Paul stands at 59% and that John Conway sits at 34%, which is a 25 point lead in Paul’s favor. But there are two other polls that predict differently. A Daily Kos poll, conducted on May 10, 2010, predicted that Paul is 12 points ahead of Conway. Public Policy Polling predicted Paul is only 1 point ahead of Conway and this poll was conducted on May 1, 2010. Because he cited an existing and recent poll, we rate Sen. Cornyn’s statement TRUE.

This fact-check took a combined 1.5 hours.